Analysis: Popular as governor, Indonesian presidential hopeful Ganjar Pranowo needs to step up internationally if elected

JAKARTA: Indonesian presidential hopeful Ganjar Pranowo will end his 10-year tenure as governor of Central Java on Tuesday (Sep 5), but analysts have mixed reviews about his time in office and say he needs to improve if he wants to become the country's leader.

Mr Pranowo, 54, has served two terms as the governor of Central Java, which has a population of 35 million people and is one of the most populous provinces in Indonesia. 

After a decade of being the most powerful person in Central Java, he is set to run as president when the country’s election commission opens registration for the presidency in October. Indonesia will hold presidential and legislative elections on Feb 14 next year.

The ruling Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), of which Mr Pranowo is a member, declared him to be its presidential candidate in April. 

However, analysts CNA interviewed have different opinions on how Mr Pranowo has governed Central Java, which may indicate how well he may lead the country if elected as president. 

“It is not easy to rate the performance of a regional head,” said Mr Wawan Mas’udi, a social and politics lecturer based in Yogyakarta. 

“A governor is a special position because he needs to be in the middle. He needs to bridge the demands and needs from the central government and the regents and mayors,” he added. 

Mr Ah Maftuchan, a Jakarta-based public policy expert, said he rates Mr Pranowo’s tenure highly, while Semarang-based social and politics lecturer Nur Hidayat Sardini said he believes the governor performed poorly.

All analysts acknowledge that Mr Pranowo seems to have an open communication style and is approachable by the people. 

Still, they conclude it may not be enough to lead the country of 270 million people, Southeast Asia’s biggest economy.

LEADERSHIP STYLE

Mr Pranowo’s leadership is based on direct engagement with the people, said Mr Mas’udi, who is the dean of the University of Gadjah Mada’s social and politics faculty.  

“He is able to talk directly with his people and tries to ensure that it is not bureaucratic.

“He also tries to open communication between the regents and mayors. There were barely any conflicts between the governor, regents and mayors during his tenure compared with his predecessor Bibit Waluyo,” he said. 

Former Central Java governor Bibit Waluyo had a dispute in 2011 with then Solo mayor Joko Widodo, now president, over constructing a mall in Solo. 

Mr Waluyo insisted on building a mall in Solo, which Mr Widodo and most people in the city resisted, resulting in him calling the mayor dumb.

“Previously, there were many tensions between the provincial leader, the regents and mayors,” Mr Mas’udi recalled.

“But now it is good, and the relationship with the national government is also like that.

“Mr Pranowo is able to communicate productively so that many national programmes were implemented successfully in Central Java.”

Central Java-born Mr Maftuchan, executive director of public policy thinktank Prakarsa, noted the same things. 

He also said the people of Central Java are fond of Mr Pranowo.

“Mr Pranowo sets the standard of how the government should communicate with the public,” he said. 

NO BREAKTHROUGHS

However, Mr Sardini of the University of Diponegoro in Central Java is not impressed.  

“I think he is very prominent on social media, like on TikTok and YouTube, where he has a lot of subscribers,” he said. 

Yet, he believes there have not been significant changes during his tenure.

“There have not been significant breakthroughs. He has no achievements…apart from his social media presence, which everyone knows,” he added.

The northern part of Central Java, which suffers from land subsidence and experiences regular floods, also remains frequently inundated. 

Mr Pranowo’s government has tried to tackle the problem by constructing embankments, but it has not improved the situation so far. 

“The embankments have no effect. In my area, for example, Pekalongan, it is not successful,” said Mr Sardini. 

“There are many industries which have led to the land subsidence, and climate change also plays a part, but people should be able to lessen the impact.” 

He also pointed out other unresolved cases, such as the controversy of andesite mining in Wadas and the operation of cement firm PT Semen Indonesia in Rembang. 

The andesite mining in Wadas is a national project which has been controversial since 2019. The andesites would be used to construct a dam about 12 km away from the site. 

Some locals oppose it, believing it will destroy the environment, while some question whether the mining has the required permit. There are also locals who would need to move due to the mining, but they resist.

Likewise, the presence of PT Semen Indonesia in Rembang is equally controversial. 

Some locals think the construction of the cement factory would harm the environment and threaten their food and water supply, especially since many paddy fields are nearby.

Those who reject it are mostly farmers who have even launched protests in front of the presidential palace in Jakarta. 

Meanwhile, to review Mr Pranowo’s performance, Mr Maftuchan looks at poverty eradication during his tenure. 

According to the country’s statistics agency, when Mr Pranowo came to office in 2013, Central Java’s monetary poverty rate was about 14.5 per cent. Today, it is about 10.7 per cent.

“Can this be regarded as an achievement, considering this was done in 10 years? I would say so-so because eradicating extreme poverty is not easy and needs a specific strategy,” said Mr Maftuchan.

He noted what was done in the province was in line with the central government’s programme. There was no specific provincial strategy.  

His thinktank has conducted its own study on multidimensional poverty in Indonesia from 2012 to 2021. 

In 2013, Central Java’s multidimensional poverty, which considers factors such as health, education and standard of living, was almost 39 per cent. In 2021, it declined to less than eight per cent.

“This is a very significant decline,” he stated. 

REGIONAL CHALLENGES

Mr Mas’udi of the University of Gadjah Mada said this is why Central Java has won numerous awards, especially from the central government. 

It has developed healthcare services by digitising the hospitals the province manages so patients can directly communicate with the doctors and save time, among others.

He highlighted that Mr Pranowo also successfully built infrastructure, including new economic zones. 

Nevertheless, Mr Mas’udi noted the mining in Wadas and the operation of the cement firm in Rembang are unresolved problems on Mr Pranowo’s report card. 

“But there will always be protests surrounding construction areas. 

“It is a matter of how to communicate the situation (to those who object) and to resolve it. That’s the key,” he asserted.

He also acknowledged that Mr Pranowo has shown little initiative in handling the sinking of the northern part of Central Java, including tackling the impact of climate change. 

Mr Mas’udi believes that if Mr Pranowo becomes the next president of Indonesia, climate change would be a big issue he needs to tackle. 

He thinks when it comes to domestic issues such as infrastructure and poverty, Mr Pranowo would be able to deal with them because they are similar to those he has already handled, albeit on a smaller scale. 

For now, there are three presidential hopefuls. The others are former Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan, 54, and Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto, 71.

Mr Pranowo or Mr Subianto usually leads in the polls, with Mr Baswedan consistently coming in third place. 

Compared to them, Mr Pranowo has shown less international presence and interest, Mr Mas’udi concluded. 

“There are climate change challenges, which are regional and global challenges, there are global disruptions, international relations which need to be built,” he pointed out. 

“Based on his track record in Central Java, this is where he does not have much experience. His competence in international politics, regional politics, and bilateral relations would be tested, and this would be his main challenge.”