Indonesian presidential candidates Anies, Ganjar unveil their foreign policy strategies, and they are worlds apart

JAKARTA: One wants Indonesia to be more active on the global stage and in humanitarian efforts, without asking, “What’s in it for me?”. Another wants Indonesia to continue offering investment and collaboration opportunities to foreign investors, while working to boost the power of the Indonesian passport.

Indonesian presidential candidates Anies Baswedan and Ganjar Pranowo appeared to have markedly different foreign policy approaches, which they unveiled for the first time at events organised by the Jakarta-based think tank Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) over two days this week.

While Mr Anies was critical of some infrastructure projects spearheaded by current president Joko Widodo – namely the development of Indonesia’s new capital, Nusantara – Mr Ganjar’s vision appeared largely aligned with that of Jokowi, as the president is popularly known.

Indonesia, the world’s third-biggest democracy, is set to stage simultaneous presidential and legislative elections on Feb 14.

The presidential election will determine who gets to lead Southeast Asia’s biggest economy for the next five years, and a question flagged by many political and business watchers is whether the new leader will continue or undo the course set by Jokowi, who is barred by Indonesia’s Constitution from running for a third term.

The third presidential candidate for the 2024 polls, Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto, is scheduled to speak on Monday at another CSIS event.

GANJAR: ‘ONLY PARTNER CHINA? OF COURSE NOT’

Mr Ganjar’s foreign policy vision and programmes appear “very similar to Jokowi’s”, noted Mr Bhima Yudhistira, executive director of another think tank, the Centre for Economic and Law Studies (CELIOS).

“Jokowi has been more self-serving in his foreign policy. It’s all about serving the national interest and attracting investment,” he told CNA.

The president has focused heavily on the maritime sector and even created a dedicated coordinating ministry for his vision. Similarly, Ganjar revealed that if elected, guarding the archipelago’s vast waters would be among his top priorities and promised to double the country’s maritime defence budget, which currently stands at US$2 billion per year.

Another key programme, Mr Ganjar continued, would be to increase the power of Indonesia’s passport, which currently allows travel to 75 destinations visa-free. The former Central Java governor said he aims to increase this number to 120 if he is elected president.   

The Indonesian passport currently ranks 72nd on the annual Guide Passport Index, and Mr Ganjar said he aims to improve Indonesia’s ranking to at least the 50th spot.

Major projects are also set to continue down the path charted by Mr Widodo, should Mr Ganjar win: Indonesia’s relocation of its capital to East Kalimantan, the downstreaming of the mining sector, and energy transition programmes.  

Indonesia, the largest producer of nickel, in 2020 banned the export of raw nickel ore in a bid to establish itself as a key player in nickel refineries and the production of batteries for electric vehicles. 

Mr Ganjar said he will expand Mr Widodo’s downstreaming efforts to other sectors including palm oil, an essential ingredient for many food and cosmetic products. 

China has been a major investor in Indonesia’s downstreaming efforts, particularly in the nickel sector where Chinese investors have poured billions of dollars into 90 per cent of the 38 nickel smelters in Indonesia, according to data from the Ministry for Energy and Mineral Resources. 

“Someone asked me whether Indonesia would only partner with China if I became the president. Of course not," Mr Ganjar said at the forum.

“All countries can work with us in many sectors where we can all benefit to solve our mutual problems and address our mutual needs.”

It will be important for Indonesia’s international partnerships to be beneficial to all parties involved, even as a new president takes over, noted Mr Bhima.

“For the past nine years (under Mr Widodo’s presidency) we have seen our country's politics, investment and labour policies changed to please foreign investors… We must ensure that our international partnerships are mutually beneficial for all the countries involved,” he said.

The growth in China’s investments, Mr Bhima said, has led to a greater influence over Indonesia.  

In the first nine months of 2023, Beijing poured around US$5.6 billion in foreign direct investment into Indonesia, according to data from Indonesia’s Investment Authority, putting it just below Singapore, which invested US$12.1 billion during the same period.  

Some of Mr Widodo’s policies have also drawn criticism for seemingly favouring businesses and investors. In 2020, for instance, the Jokowi administration enacted the Omnibus Law, which saw sweeping changes to 75 existing laws covering manpower to environmental protection. 

While creating greater ease for businesses and investors, some analysts noted it reduced labourers’ rights and loosened some of the environmental requirements to set up factories in Indonesia.

ANIES WANTS LESS TRANSACTIONAL FOREIGN POLICY

Mr Anies, who spoke the day after Mr Ganjar, began his presentation on Wednesday by highlighting how the fourth most populous nation was revered by the international community for spearheading the Asian-African Conference in 1955, which birthed the Non Aligned Movement (NAM) in 1961. The NAM promotes the spirit of anti-colonialism and multilateralism, and Indonesia is still praised for both initiatives decades later.

The former Jakarta governor said he is keen on reviving the same political vision of the past.  

“Today, many view our foreign policy as still transactional. We only move when it is beneficial to Indonesia in terms of investment or trade, not as our responsibility as a citizen of the world,” said Mr Anies.

“We need to participate actively in global forums and humanitarian efforts without asking what's in it for us.”

Mr Anies also showed newspaper articles commenting on Mr Widodo’s pragmatic approach to foreign policy, including one about the president’s visit to Russia and Ukraine in June last year. 

Critics panned Jokowi’s visit to Moscow and Kyiv, saying it was more to do with Indonesia’s own interests rather than promoting peace in the warring post-Soviet states.

Indonesia is a major importer of grain from Ukraine and has experienced shortages of several food products because of the war. 

Last year, Indonesia hosted the G20 summit and several world leaders threatened not to attend if Russian president Vladimir Putin did. Mr Putin ultimately did not show up the November summit in Bali. 

Mr Bhima of CELIOS agreed Indonesia’s foreign policy could be less pragmatic. “But it doesn’t mean that Indonesia should be the way it was when we spearheaded NAM or the Asian-African Conference. That is taking things too far,” he said. 

On the issue of infrastructure, Mr Anies also appears to diverge from Mr Ganjar and Mr Widodo. If elected, he said he wants to review some ongoing projects initiated by Mr Widodo which rely heavily on foreign investments and loans.

This includes reassessing the feasibility of Indonesia’s future capital, Nusantara. Its first phase is scheduled to be ready by August 17, Indonesia’s independence day, next year. The project is slated to be fully completed in 2045, and Mr Widodo and Nusantara National Capital Authority chairman Bambang Susantono have pitched it as an eco-friendly project that would be profitable to investors.

But Mr Anies said at the forum: “If there are decisions that are not favourable (to Indonesia) then there needs to be protection so (foreign investors) will not experience loss... With regards to the project itself, on the Nusantara project, let the technocratic assessment (decide its fate),” he said.

In contrast, Mr Ganjar has promised to continue with plans to move Indonesia’s capital from Jakarta to East Kalimantan, calling the project “essential” to Indonesia’s future.

There will be no shortage of challenges for Indonesia’s next president – from post-pandemic economic recovery and the energy transition, to increased rivalry between global superpowers.

Adding to the list, is the need to tackle corruption, noted CSIS executive director, Mr Yose Rizal Damuri. “Corruption increases the economic cost and causes our economy to lose its competitiveness... particularly in attracting investment which in turn creates jobs,” he said.

Ultimately, “as a big country with growing influence in the region, Indonesia must play a bigger role and make its contribution towards peace and prosperity, both regionally and globally,” he added.

Read this story in Bahasa Indonesia here.