Taiwan's planned record defence budget signals to China that use of force could be costly: Expert

SINGAPORE: With its proposal for a record-high military budget for 2023, Taiwan is sending a signal that it stands prepared to defend itself - and that any use of force by Beijing could come at a cost even if it ultimately brings the island under its control, according to observers.

Taiwan on Thursday (Aug 25) announced plans for a 14 per cent year-on-year increase to US$19 billion in defence spending for next year - a sharp hike compared with previous annual spending growth of below 4 per cent since 2017.

This comes after China staged large-scale war games around the island - which Beijing views as its sovereign territory - in reaction to a visit by United States House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

The growth in Taiwan's military budget is to be expected, given the increased pressure on the island from China's military, said National University of Singapore (NUS) political scientist Chong Ja Ian.

“Previous limitations on the expansion of military spending for Taiwan had to do with scepticism toward the immediacy of the military threat from the mainland,” the associate professor added. 

“PRC (People's Republic of China) military threats have vastly reduced such apprehensions.”

Assistant Professor Benjamin Ho from the China Programme at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies also said Taiwan’s move to increase its budget was “not surprising at all”, given the increase in threats and incursions from China towards Taipei over the last couple of years.

Taiwan recorded incursions by around 970 Chinese warplanes into its air defence zone in 2021, more than double the roughly 380 in 2020.

The figure this year has already exceeded 980, with more than 360 incursions recorded in August alone.

Taiwan's defence ministry said in a statement on Thursday that the budget gave full consideration to the "enemy threat".

"In the face of the Chinese communists' continuous expansion of targeted military activities in recent years and the normalised use of warships and military aircraft to raid and disturb Taiwan's surrounding seas and airspace, the military adheres to the principle of preparing for war without seeking war and defending national security with strength," it added.

Assoc Prof Chong said that Taiwan's ramped-up defence spending would send a signal to the US, neighbouring Japan and other countries.

"That Taiwan is taking its own defence seriously and is ready to hold off any armed aggression from the PRC as best it can. This move intends to reinforce the view that Taiwan is a reliable partner,” he said.

“Taipei is also signalling to Beijing that any use of force could be potentially costly, even if it is able to win eventually.”

Dr Ho said that the ongoing tensions in the Taiwan Strait remain a key flashpoint in Asia and would be watched by most governments in the region. 

Both Taiwan and China's recent moves to expand their militaries "demonstrates that certainly there is cause for concern", he told CNA938 in an interview.

In March, China said it would spend 7 per cent more on defence this year, setting the spending figure at US$211.62 billion.

"Ultimately military capabilities are a function of threat assessment, so it's really about how these intentions are being interpreted by policymakers that will determine how these capabilities will be put to use or not put to use," said Dr Ho.

'WILL TO FIGHT'

Assoc Prof Chong also noted that an invasion by China was only one scenario.

"There are other modes of military coercion, including blockades and harassment of shipping and flights. Or even the use of ostensibly civilian vessels to disrupt regular activity,” he said, pointing out that these were actions by China previously observed in disputes over the South China Sea and near Indonesia's Natuna Islands among others.

Still, an increased defence budget, well-spent to improve and expand capabilities, will enable Taiwan to have more options for responding to actions from China's People’s Liberation Army, said Assoc Prof Chong.

While China spends on advanced equipment like stealth fighters and aircraft carriers, Taiwan has focused on weapons such as longer-range missiles that can strike far into its giant neighbour's territory - potentially hitting areas of economic value, the NUS academic added.

Asked if there were lessons from Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Assoc Prof Chong pointed to geographical differences between Ukraine and Taiwan.

“Taiwan has about 100 miles (161km) of water between its main island and the Chinese coast. This can make offensive military operations more complicated, while also making resupply from partners more difficult,” he said.

As Taiwan is physically much smaller than the Ukraine, being able to counter threats from stand-off distances could be more helpful as well.

“Taiwan would likely want to prepare itself for an invasion scenario ... This would also mean stockpiling weapons and ammunition, as well as supplies such as food and water," said Assoc Prof Chong. “This could wear down any landing Chinese forces."

The main lesson from Ukraine for Taiwan, he added, would likely be "preparedness and having the will to fight".