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Commentary: Race to succeed Jokowi will lie in who presidential candidates pick as number two

With a three-way contest set for February 2024, Indonesia’s election hinges on the identity, ability and loyalty of the vice president nominations, says King’s College London Visiting Lecturer Dr Samir Puri.

Commentary: Race to succeed Jokowi will lie in who presidential candidates pick as number two

Composite photo of Indonesia’s presidential candidates: Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) nominee Ganjar Pranowo, veteran Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto and former Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan. (Photos: Facebook/Ganjar Pranowo, AFP/Adek Berry and Facebook/Anies Baswedan)

SINGAPORE: The cacophony of polls and political gossip coming out of Indonesia shows we are drawing close to election time in the world’s fourth most populous country and 16th largest economy. 

Next February’s contest looks set to be a three-horse race, pitting the ruling Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) nominee Ganjar Pranowo against veteran Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto and former Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan

Frontrunners Mr Pranowo and Mr Subianto are neck and neck in recent polls with the highly popular President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo yet to officially endorse either candidate.

As these rival presidential bids try to distinguish themselves in the months to come, one thing could prove the decisive ingredient: The right running mate. 

Historically, vice presidential picks have had a major influence on whether a presidential bid is successful. The right nominee can appeal to more voters outside of the presidential hopeful’s traditional base and plug gaps in their profile.

Vice President Ma'ruf Amin, an influential cleric, played that role well in Mr Widodo’s re-election in 2019, consolidating the Muslim vote and then serving as a relatively withdrawn vice president, happy to support the president’s legislative agenda. 

LOOKING FOR COMPLEMENTARY RUNNING MATES

Mr Baswedan, fallen behind in recent polls, must somehow find a balance between holding his political coalition together and choosing a running mate with raw electoral appeal to claw back the deficit. Democrat party chair Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono is seen to serve the former purpose; popular East Java Governor Khofifah Indar Parawansa the latter.

Mr Subianto faces a similar challenge in his third attempt at the presidency.

Twice the unsuccessful presidential candidate (in 2014 and 2019), Mr Subianto has assembled a somewhat unwieldy coalition and looks in need of a younger, more business savvy running mate to complement his military expertise and decades of experience at the top of Indonesian politics. 

Minister of State Owned Enterprises Erick Thohir, who is also the former owner of Inter Milan and chair of the influential Sharia Economic Community, is one such entrepreneurial figure who polls well as a result of his ministry's work to cut food and energy prices. Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Airlangga Hartarto has the requisite economic experience and can leverage the Golkar Party’s electoral machinery in any future negotiations, but his numbers are weak. 

Mr Pranowo is relatively free from the pressures of coalition politics, with the backing of the almighty PDI-P and national matriarch Megawati Soekarnoputri.

Yet despite being a charismatic politician, the current Central Java governor boasts only regional experience. Domestic commentators have suggested that a running mate with an international profile could plug the gap. 

That said, Mr Pranowo’s recent outreach to a number of religious leaders is a strong indication that the PDI-P may follow the Jokowi playbook by selecting a figure with religious links to appeal to that demographic. Alongside Mr Thohir and Mr Hartarto, parliamentary speaker (and daughter of Mdm Megawati) Puan Maharani and tourism minister and coal supremo Sandiaga Uno are seen as potential options. 

JOKOWI RAISED THE POTENTIAL OF GANJAR-PRABOWO JOINT TICKET

President Widodo, who will step down in 2024 having served two terms, continues to loom large over the race. Like Mdm Megawati, he has become a totemic figure in national life and remains the country’s most popular politician with an approval rating never far from the 80 per cent mark.

Both fellow PDI-P member Mr Pranowo and rival-turned-ally Mr Subianto stand to benefit enormously from his potential endorsement as a consequence. Mr Widodo has even retained an interest in the two frontrunners joining forces to defeat Mr Baswedan. 

Though it is by no means impossible for the vice president to influence government policy - Jusuf Kalla is recognised to have done so under both Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and Mr Widodo in his first term - it seems unlikely the president will get his wish.

This is realistically the 71-year-old Mr Subianto’s last opportunity to get the top job, while Mr Pranowo has the PDI-P’s electoral apparatus squarely behind him. Both think they can win and will want the victory as their own, not as number two.

VICE PRESIDENT JOB COMING INTO FOCUS

The two frontrunners will instead be paying close attention to Mr Widodo’s preferences for their prospective running mates. 

(From left) President Joko Widodo, Minister of Defence Prabowo Subianto, and Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo visit a paddy field in Central Java on Mar 9, 2023. (Photo: Presidential Secretariat Press Bureau/Laily Rachev)

Members of the president’s political project and those deemed capable of carrying on his socioeconomic legacy will of course be favoured, as will those with the raw electoral appeal to get Mr Pranowo and Mr Subianto into the second round of voting ahead of Mr Baswedan, noted for his staunch opposition to Mr Widodo’s administration.

Running mate nominations are not expected until late summer at the earliest but the specifications for the job are at least coming into focus. 

In the meantime, one of three presidential candidates may pull away decisively from the pack, or get a boost when Mr Widodo decides who to fully endorse. More likely is that the race remains close for some time.

In this context, picking the right running mate may prove decisive. 

Dr Samir Puri is Visiting Lecturer in War Studies at King’s College London and former Senior Fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies-Asia based in Singapore.

Source: CNA/fl
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