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Biden has withdrawn from the US presidential race. What happens next?

How does the Democratic Party's nomination process work? Is Kamala Harris the preferred candidate? And what will happen to Biden's campaign cash? CNA looks at what's next.

Biden has withdrawn from the US presidential race. What happens next?

President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris stand on stage at the Democratic National Committee winter meeting, Feb 3, 2023, in Philadelphia. (File photo: AP/Patrick Semansky)

After mounting pressure to abandon his re-election bid, US President Joe Biden did just that on Sunday (Jul 21) and endorsed his vice president Kamala Harris as the Democratic Party's new nominee.

It is not a done deal for Harris, however, as she still needs the backing of individual party delegates.

And given that the primaries have long ended, Biden's last-minute decision throws the party into unchartered waters.

Here's a look at what could happen next.

What are the rules?

The power to formally nominate a candidate lies with the party's pledged delegates and superdelegates at the Democratic National Convention.

Pledged or individual delegates are chosen from all 50 states, the US capital and overseas territories. They are typically party activists, local political leaders or early supporters of a particular presidential candidate.

While pledged delegates are committed to voting for the candidate state voters chose in the primary elections, party rules do not force them to do so.

Superdelegates can vote for any candidate they want, regardless of the results of the primary elections. These delegates are senior Democrats who are current or former elected officials or who serve on the Democratic National Convention.

There are nearly 4,000 pledged delegates - almost all former Biden delegates - and roughly 750 superdelegates.

If no candidate gets a majority in the first round of voting by pledged delegates, the process moves to a second round where superdelegates would cast their ballots until a nominee is chosen.

It could take several rounds of voting for someone to get a majority and become the nominee.

What happens now?

Biden has spent the last several months collecting about 3,900 Democratic delegates by winning primary elections in US states and territories.

That's 99 per cent of the pledged delegates who were set to back him at the convention, scheduled to begin Aug 19 in Chicago.

Party leaders had previously planned to formally nominate Biden via a virtual roll call ahead of the convention.

But by stepping aside, Biden is effectively "releasing" his delegates, potentially sparking a competition among other Democratic candidates to become the nominee.

If a candidate is able to obtain the majority of the pledged delegates' support in the first ballot of the convention, they would be elected as Biden’s replacement. 

Harris needs the support of 1,969 of the 3,936 Democratic delegates to secure her nomination at the August convention. Her allies were reportedly working the phones within hours of Biden's announcement, calling delegates and party chairs to get their backing.

Has a sitting president ever withdrawn from the race?

President Lyndon Johnson, a Democrat, decided not to seek his party’s nomination for a second full term in March 1968, as protests against the Vietnam War mounted.

He made the surprise announcement in an Oval Office speech - and this happened far earlier in the campaign than Biden's. At the time, Johnson had not secured enough delegates in party primaries to nail down the nomination.

It turned that year's convention, also in Chicago, into a political crisis. Protesters were out in the streets and left-leaning delegates were angry at the pro-war stance of party-picked candidate Hubert Humphrey.

Humphrey, Johnson’s VP, was eventually defeated by Richard Nixon.

Following that debacle, states more widely embraced the primary process and conventions have become well-oiled affairs whose outcomes are effectively known in advance.

Who could be the new Democrat nominee? 

Vice President Kamala Harris has several advantages that give her a leg up over any potential challenger for the nomination.

For one, she received Biden’s “full support and endorsement” on Sunday - a decision that could hold considerable sway for his delegates. And for Democrats to pass over a woman of colour would risk alienating two of the party’s most important voting blocs.

Harris, 59, was the first Black person and the first woman to serve as California's attorney general. She then became the first US senator of South Asian descent.

She is now the first woman and first Black vice president.

However, some prominent Democrats, including Barack Obama and Nancy Pelosi, have not publicly given her their endorsement.

Her approval ratings are low, although a tick above Biden's.

In a hypothetical head-to-head match-up, Harris and Trump were tied with 44 per cent support each in a Jul 15 to 16 Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted immediately after the Jul 13 assassination attempt on Trump.

Other options thrown into the mix include Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear and Illinois Governor JB Pritzker - but their chances so far seem limited at best.

California Governor Gavin Newsom and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, who were seen as strong contenders earlier on, have expressed their support for Harris. 

Some of these names could be considered for the role of vice president if Harris wins the nomination.

A chance for a third party?

With Biden dropping out, could a strong third-party hopeful emerge? So far, no independent candidate is posing any danger to the dominant two-party system in the US.

In 1992, Texas billionaire Ross Perot, running as an independent, managed to win nearly 19 per cent of the popular vote.

But in the end, because of the way the country's electoral system works, he did not receive a single one of the votes that matter most - those of the 538 members of the electoral college that ultimately decide the winner.

What happens to Biden’s campaign cash? 

Biden’s campaign had nearly US$96 million on hand when he exited the race. This will now be at Harris’ disposal as she was his running mate, giving her a unique advantage, although there is some debate over how readily this money can change hands. 

"Because Biden and Harris share a campaign committee, the vice president and her running mate can continue using the campaign’s existing funds for the general election if she is on the Democratic ticket as either the presidential or vice-presidential nominee," said Trevor Potter, president of Campaign Legal Center and a former chairman of the Federal Election Commission.

A new candidate would not have immediate access to all of Biden’s campaign cash.

However, donors who already gave the maximum amount to Biden under US campaign finance law would be allowed to contribute to a new nominee - which could allow a replacement other than Harris to fill their coffers faster.

Financial considerations play no small role in presidential campaigns, which are hugely expensive undertakings.

Biden’s campaign and the Democratic Party have already spent hundreds of millions of dollars trying to re-elect the Biden-Harris ticket. 

Picking a nominee other than Harris could require spending even more money to introduce a new candidate to voters.

LISTEN: With Joe Biden out, could Kamala Harris beat Donald Trump?

Source: Agencies/rl(gs)

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